April 12, 2012
By: Dr. Matthias Lang
Energy Policy Shift Possible and Worthwhile
The medium and long-term goals of the government’s energy policy shift of 2011 will pay off, a comprehensive 329-page study on behalf of the Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) concludes.
The study “Long-term Scenarios and Strategies for the Expansion of Renewable Energy Sources in Germany” considers the expansion of renewable energies, energy efficiency and climate protection achievable, and focused on determining the necessary conditions for implementing the measures approved in connection with the energy policy shift until 2050.
According to the study by DLR Institute, Fraunhofer IWES and the Engineering Company IfnE, the expansion targets for renewable energy (see Section 1 para. 2 EEG) can be achieved by all scenarios on the basis of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). Under any scenario the share of renewable energy in the German energy mix will account for roughly 40% by 2020, exceeding the government’s goal of 35%. For 2050 the share according to the three main scenarios ranges from 85% to 87%. The targets for mobility and heat will also be met respectively exceeded, the study predicts.
The study also contains information concerning the economic aspects of the energy policy shift. While renewable energy sources are currently still more expensive than coal, oil and gas, they are likely to become less expensive as the prices for conventional energy sources are likely to rise further, the study forecasts. Given an effective implementation of the energy policy targets, scientists expect average renewable energy costs of 7.6 ct/kWh by 2030 compared with over 9 ct/kWh for hard coal and gas.
Given a consistent implementation of the energy policy shift, investments in plants and equipment for the supply of electricity and heating from renewable energy sources can rise from EUR 150 billion in 2010 to EUR 200 billion for each next decade until 2050, the scientists say. At the same time costs for imported fossil fuels will decrease from EUR 70 billion in 2010 to EUR 30 to 35 billion per year by 2030, according to the predictions.
Translation by German Energy Blog
Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety